Nothing Feels Good
The Milwaukee Brewers are division champs. Yay?
Last I wrote here, I suggested the Milwaukee Brewers looked more like the 2014 team that collapsed out of the divisional and postseason picture. And friends, I was wrong.
Given the fawning, borderline delusional afterglow coverage last night, you’re forgiven if you thought the Brewers entered Tuesday night with purpose, took care of business against a lame duck St. Louis Cardinals team featuring players auditioning for next season, and popped bottles over a job well done, overcoming adversity and some frankly bad baseball this season. If you’ve followed this club for any length of time, you know full well that’s not this team’s style. They needed the Chicago Cubs to once again Brant Brown themselves in Atlanta against a Braves team that for six innings last night sleepwalked through the proceedings.
ASIDE: I pause here to recognize former Brewers analyst Matt Pauley, now of KMOX and the Cardinals Radio Network, on the occasion of his debut doing play-by-play in the broadcast booth. I flipped the MLB Gameday audio feed to Cards coverage for a bit and was never so happy to hear an opposing team’s call. Congratulations, Matt. I know how much this means to you.
I get it: Bally Sports Wisconsin, WTMJ-AM and the Journal Sentinel are cheerleading for numerous reasons: ratings, ad sales, subscriptions and, for the former in particular, driving 2024 season ticket and 2023 postseason ticket sales (The Brewers are part-owners of their vertical within Diamond Sports Group — and if they can show financial returns to MLB [which takes over all postseason affairs from local teams] all the better).
But, as the kids like to say, y’all smoking that pack.
The post-All-Star break surge through August largely dissipated, and while the team went 22-10 after escaping Los Angeles, they did what good teams do, handle business against beatable opponents: they swept a flagging Rangers squad, their evil twin in Minnesota and mopped up a Padres squad perennially proving that time is a flat circle.
They followed those strong showings up by dropping two of three to their division rival Cubs, took two from Philadelphia, dropped two more against an interesting, but bad Pirates team, then crapped away the Corbin Burnes no-hitter (which could not entirely unreasonably be laid at the feet of Craig Counsell, for all his decision-making prowess) in The Bronx, losing another series. They won a four-game Miami series, took two of three against Washington and then another three of four series, this time from the Cardinals. That’s what got the Brewers to the brink of a division title.
Then they arrived at last weekend: 16-1 (W), 5-4 (L), 6-1 (L), having learned approximately nothing beating the Marlins the week before. The body language looked mostly bad last night in Milwaukee. Then they threw a party because the Braves did what the Brewers couldn’t: keep the Cubs from winning the division.
And these lead to two issues that worry me with the Brewers in the postseason:
First, the Brewers present as an irrational confidence team. They had a margin of victory of five runs or more 19 times this season. Their record in the games following is 8-11. Let’s suppose the offense erupts next week in Wild Card Game 1. There’s ample evidence to suggest a letdown in Game 2. More dreadful yet, a presumed letdown in a deciding Game 3 after a Game 2 blowout dub.
For three years now, Brewers batters don’t know what’s coming and, as a rule, luck into whatever offense they generate (92 OPS+, at league bottom in total bases, hits, doubles, home runs and slugging and a staggering 136 GIDP) and that factors in Mark Canha’s exceptional play at the plate (.820 OPS, 124 OPS+) since being acquired from the Mets.
If it comes down to starting pitching, any chance Brewers hurlers give the club will be negated by deficient bats. After all, it takes runs to win games. The pitchers deserve the benefit of a larger margin of error than one or two mistakes. They likely will not get it. Corbin Burnes’ majestic performance against the Yankees portends trouble. Even Harvey Haddix had a World Series ring on his ledger, thanks to Bill Mazeroski.
Secondly, any of the four teams the Brewers face in the opening round are problematic matchups. It’s a four-team dogpile for two remaining wild card spots: Cubs (5-5), Marlins (4-3), Arizona Diamondbacks (2-4) and Cincinnati Reds (10-3). While most of the participants in 2018 have moved on, baseball laundry has a remarkable way of holding onto memory. You know full well the Cubs are looking for revenge for Game 163. The Brewers have struggled this season against Justin Steele and historically with Kyle Hendricks. Cody Bellinger has outperformed expectations in 2023, while Ian Happ is a Brewer killer. These two teams are so cosmically and bitterly connected, a restoration of balance would result in a Cubs upset. And I’m not happy to suggest it, either.
The Marlins completely baffled the Brewers over the weekend after the blowout, while Joel Payamps literally threw the game away in the late innings. Payamps’ arm is cooked and shouldn’t be used with any leverage, leaving Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe, Elvis Peguero and Hoby Milner as late inning options leading to Airbender. I like that group’s stuff as a whole, but they’re unknown October quantities.
(I also like Payamps to come back next season having built on 2023’s overall quality body of work. Right now is an entirely different story. The guy is just worn out.)
The Brewers’ inability to sustain anything against a familiar opponent should be terrifying. If Alcantara returns — not a guarantee — and Edward Cabrera does anything like what he did this past weekend, the Brewers’ pitching advantage disappears. They also have Jorge Soler and his career .876 OPS against Brewer pitching (and he went 5-11 in Milwaukee last weekend), a batting champ in Luis Arraez and the David Eckstein of Chris Taylors in Jon Berti. Lots of bad mojo to overcome there.
The Diamondbacks pose a similar problem: Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly historically and routinely handcuff Brewers. The D-Backs took the season series 4-2 with a convincing run differential advantage produced by a middle of the pack, literally (100 OPS+) league average offense. Corbin Carroll has amassed more bWAR (5.2) in 2023 than any three Brewers rookies combined. Roughly one-third of one [very good] player’s productivity taking up one-third of most Brewers lineup combinations.
The Reds? If they barge into the scene, they’ll be chaos agents; a bunch of kids who aren’t supposed to be here, and Votto apparently looking to cap his career. They represent the Brewers’ strongest chance to advance while also potentially turning everything into Heath Ledger’s Gotham City. There is no in between here. [jokerhangingheadoutpolicecarwindow.gif]
Given the Brewers’ recent lack of postseason success, their persistent offensive issues, a bullpen showing signs of overuse and starting pitching’s obligation to be too perfect, it’s hard for me to get all giddy about the Brewers’ chances. I know it’s a wet blanket, but at this point, after all these October entrances and exits, it’s simply not enough to show up in October. Looking at this roster for what it is, a World Series destiny is not nearly as obvious as players and personnel are talking like it is.
That’ll sell tickets, but leaves a massive caveat on anything else they’re offering. It’s the best era of Brewers baseball, and it still doesn’t feel right.